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Ukraine

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Cody
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Putin's gone the whole hog, it seems. Dangerous times!

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Pinback
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Bet the Chinese are watching closely how this plays out.


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Cody
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Posted by: @pinback

Bet the Chinese are watching closely how this plays out.

Oh yes!

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Gaius Konstantine
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I've been following this situation closely for years, my mother in law lives in Donetsk. (A proud stubborn woman that would rather hear the occasional bomb go off rather than give up her independence and stay with her kids in a foreign land).

Obviously this means the Mrs. is from Ukraine, and here it gets complicated. She speaks perfect Russian, and hardly a word of Ukrainian. It didn't mater under the Soviet Union, but when that collapsed, she suddenly found herself living in a different country, her whole city did.

Anyway, I'm really puzzled by Putin over this, it seems a bit out of character, he comes off as a chess player, not a gambler...and this is clearly a gamble. A badly played one at that.

Amassing 190K troops may seem like a lot, but when you use 35% for your initial assault on a country the size of Texas...it's ambitious to say the least. The reaction from the west and credible defense put up by Ukraine means that this is now an existential fight for him personally, he cannot afford to lose.

And that my friends is what worries me. The possibilities for escalation are ripe.

My prayers for a quick peace and sanity to prevail.


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Cody
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Posted by: @gaius-konstantine

I'm really puzzled by Putin over this, it seems a bit out of character, he comes off as a chess player, not a gambler...and this is clearly a gamble. A badly played one at that.

<nods> Yep! I expected him to "secure" the two breakaway regions, not go for the whole country. The possibility for escalation is very high now, and NATO could really be put to the test. If it kicks off in Europe, I expect China will go for Taiwan.

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Well corporal Putin has managed to do something which no one expected, he has united Europe and even got the Germans to spend money on defence, which is truly amazing.

China seems to have been very quiet, no doubt assessing they impact of sanctions and world reaction would have on themselves if they were to go after Taiwan.

  

 


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DarkOne
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Lot of good points here 😉

Posted by: @gaius-konstantine

Anyway, I'm really puzzled by Putin over this, it seems a bit out of character, he comes off as a chess player, not a gambler...and this is clearly a gamble. A badly played one at that.

Agreed Putin always came across as the thinking man in the room, he isn't doing a lot of that thinking right now. He is overreaching his forces to be honest. And with reports of so many russian soldiers not even knowing that they were in a war seems very strange to me, almost unheard of. USA soldiers get orders and are briefed on where and why they are going, we know the mission at hand. I am very surprised this is happening in Russia to be honest, I always thought the Russian troops trained like the USA soldiers did its our full-time job and we are ready to go when asked.

Posted by: @gaius-konstantine

Amassing 190K troops may seem like a lot, but when you use 35% for your initial assault on a country the size of Texas...it's ambitious to say the least.

This amount of troops can fit into two football stadiums the number may seem like a large amount, and if they were highly trained soldiers with resources and logistic support they could possibly do the deed. The most difficult part of war is not knowing what to expect imho, because unless you know the Ukraine countryside and cities you are already at a disadvantage. There were reports soldiers asking for directions 😉 I don't think Russia has the logistic power to take the Ukraine, they lack to much info and since they do they are just trying to overwhelm the country with brute force... and in doing that the human/equipment loss will be high.

Posted by: @pinback

China seems to have been very quiet, no doubt assessing they impact of sanctions and world reaction would have on themselves if they were to go after Taiwan.

100% agree here, China is seeing how the NATO countries respond and how Russia is treated. If NATO countries show weakness China will be more empowered to try their hand at Taiwan.... but China talks a big game but they are a even lesser threat than Russia. The whole 'one child policy' China had for years will come back to haunt them if war ever breaks out.... the moment thousands of families loose their only child to war, the chinese people would rise up and definitely not support the effort. Plus Chinese military is very inexperienced at war in general, they try to cause fear with sheer numbers but equipment quality and training/experience always matter in war. 

NATO countries have generally been in conflicts for the last 20-30yrs... I have trained and been on operations with a few countries soldiers (even have a nato ribbon on my uniform from a campaign) but to go back to my point... NATO countries will be more successful at war than either Russia or China just simply from experience. Both China and Russia haven't really been in any significant war since WW2, that fact alone puts them at a disadvantage in any conflict.... training and experience matter.

Like in the middle-east, they are good fighters/experienced all they know is war for the past 30-50yrs only thing bringing them down is logistics and infrastructure to support their fighters and they would have a good force.

So Putin has put himself and Russia in a bit of a situation.... a must win situation because the world press is framing him and Russia in a bad light and if they loose it will be very embarrassing for them and crushing for the economy of Russia for years to come.

 

But lets see how this goes, I hope everyone's families are safe if they are in that region. 

 


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Gaius Konstantine
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Posted by: @cody

If it kicks off in Europe, I expect China will go for Taiwan.

Agreed

Posted by: @pinback

Well corporal Putin has managed to do something which no one expected, he has united Europe and even got the Germans to spend money on defence, which is truly amazing

Lol...but true

Posted by: @sscadmin

This amount of troops can fit into two football stadiums the number may seem like a large amount, and if they were highly trained soldiers with resources and logistic support they could possibly do the deed

I don't think so, especially if the vast majority of the populace isn't friendly. As you move and secure territory/objectives, you're detaching forces to retain control and establish your supply lines. I still feel like it's not enough troops. I know these are high-tech formations and you don't need the millions the Heer threw at the Soviets in WW II, but if I was leading this... I would have preferred 400K, (even if 100K were lower quality troops for garrison duty).

Posted by: @sscadmin

So Putin has put himself and Russia in a bit of a situation.... a must win situation because the world press is framing him and Russia in a bad light and if they loose it will be very embarrassing for them and crushing for the economy of Russia for years to come.

I agree, if he loses, he and his country are both toast.

 


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Cody
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Informative BBC article on Putin's "inner circle" here. Most, if not all, are friends from his KGB days.

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Cody
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Putin has described sanctions imposed by Western nations over his invasion of Ukraine as "akin to a declaration of war".

I'm finding it harder and harder to see how NATO can avoid being dragged into this goddamn mess! It's almost as if war with Europe and/or NATO is what Putin is pushing for. It's all very depressing. Enough to drive a man to drink!

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I think he is desperate to keep NATO out, the plan what ever it was has been a massive military failure for the Russians, they now reduced to surrounding their objectives and bombardment.

Expect to see the nuclear card being played again as it generates plenty of headlines in the west.


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DarkOne
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Yeah, thats all Russia has now for everyone to respect is the Nuke option. Ukraine and NATO countries are definitely winning the propaganda and social war thats for sure. And it doesn't help Russia that thousands of civilians are protesting the war. 

What we have to hope is something major isn't done to drag NATO countries to war.... I still don't think Russia would throw Nukes because everyone knows the world will go to shit if that happens... but the world is kinda backing Putin into a wall and he may only think thats his only option... because in the end this will be a desperate man trying to keep his power.

But the threat of Nukes shouldn't give Putin a free pass to allow him to do what he wants... and the same with China. At some point we have to say stop.... I hope the Ukrainians can hold out and the sanctions are enough to slow down or stop this war.... in a few short weeks we will know. Because you can tell by the news he is getting desperate they are bombing hospitals and random civilian areas .... if this goes on too long there will be nothing worth taking over 😉 with all the infrastructure destroyed they would have to rebuild it all. 

So all eyes are on Putin as to what choices he makes.


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So May the 9 is approaching and will the little corporal take the opportunity to announce that his special mission is now a war.?  


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Cody
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The "little corporal" is probably becoming increasingly desperate to present a victory to the Russian people, which could make him even more dangerous, as D1 mentions above. Meanwhile, China plays the "wait and see" game!

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DarkOne
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Well Putin did throw out a threat to the NATO countries to stop supplying Ukraine with weapons and the NATO countries (mainly the USA) increased its supply of weapons and our President is asking congress for like $20bil to arm the Ukraine.... which is 10x the amount of weapons they have received so far. 

I guess its cheaper to fight the war this way.... yeah its the Ukraine that suffers the destruction and causalities but the cost of a all out war would be very costly for everyone. But from what the news has reported Russia definitely is weaker than I have thought for years, they would never stand a chance against a united war effort against them. 

Russia is messing up.... if Finland, Switzerland join NATO the USA will but arms in their countries right at Russia's borders most definitely both defensive and offensive. This will be a cuban missile crisis but on a bigger scale.

And your right @Pinback this 5/9 day is coming and Putin will want to look strong...

 


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Undoubtedly they will spin some sort of victory on the 9th of May, but the arm chair generals are saying that he may take the opportunity to declare modalization as it's about the only way they dig themselves out of enormous hole they have dug.

Strange how history repeats itself, 30 odd years ago the soviets showed the Chinese how not to reform their economy, now the Russian are showing how you should not invaded.

No doubt Beijing will be watching with interest at how long the West keep the sanctions going and what the reaction is to the Russian nuclear blackmail.       


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DarkOne
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Wonder how much truth there is to this: https://metro.co.uk/2022/05/13/putin-very-ill-with-blood-cancer-says-top-oligarch-in-secret-tape-16636578/

I have seen videos/articles in the past that Putin could have some sort of aliment but what it is who knows....? But if its anything that effects the brain, maybe he should have access to nuclear codes .... just a thought 😉 I think the usa is safe from Biden doing something stupid because he couldn't remember how to launch them any way 🙂


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Cody
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If true, he's even more dangerous - and as he himself said, a rat only attacks when cornered.

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DarkOne
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Finland has been really pressing NATO countries to allow Finland in as soon as possible.... stuff like this could provoke Russia further and Sweden has also mentioned wanting to join NATO... if Russia feels surrounded they might lash out? Because you are right about the 'Rat' if all Russia has is NATO countries on their border it could get tense. 

The only positive thing I can think of is that Russia doesn't have the military to take on any full war effort, they can barely handle Ukraine. But if Russia's nuke arsenal is maintained like the rest of the Russian military they may not be a serious threat. Most of the early warning systems we let us know the moment a heat signature is recognized on a missile silo....only big threats personally are the subs. I think Putin trying to build a legacy and I doubt highly he wants to leave this world knowing he destroyed it.


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I see their is some chatter about a possible coup which could be attached to Putin ill health, but at the end of the day even if Putin was to be replaced, their still might not be much change in Russia as this ideology runs pretty deep.

 

 


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Cody
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Turkey's President Erdogan says the country will not approve Finland and Sweden's applications to join Nato, accusing them of harbouring terrorists

He's a shyster, that Erdogan!

 

 

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The Turks maybe after some sort of concessions or they want to present a more neutral image to the Russians, so they can continue peace talks. 

Thought this bit of news was interesting Retired colonel speaks out on Russian TV - BBC News as the article says are they prepping the Russian public for bad news or even mobilization.


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Cody
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Yeah, I was just reading that. They say it's always the colonels who instigate coups.

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DarkOne
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That colonel spoke truths with this:

"The desire to defend their motherland very much exists. Ultimate victory on the battlefield is determined by the high morale of troops who are spilling blood for the ideas they are ready to fight for.

"The biggest problem with [Russia's] military and political situation," he continued, "is that we are in total political isolation and the whole world is against us, even if we don't want to admit it. We need to resolve this situation.

"The situation cannot be considered normal when against us, there is a coalition of 42 countries and when our resources, military-political and military-technical, are limited."

He was right further in the article when he said: "An armed conflict with Ukraine is not in Russia's national interests."

The shit that Russia is going to have to go through for years now because of this action will harm the people most of all... so many businesses leaving Russia and businesses refusing to sell to Russia. Example both Boeing and Airbus are no longer allowing parts to be sold to Russia... so in a few short months it could be risky to fly in Russia 😉

They are going to be taking a step back technology wise because all the big firms refuse to supply parts for them. This will get bad later like next year for them. Yeah I know Russia is trying to boost their currency by requiring transactions to be done in it.... but that will only help for so long. The longer this drags out the worse it will get for them personally. 


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Cody
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Yep!

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