Ukraine

[Cody]

Turkey's President Erdogan says the country will not approve Finland and Sweden's applications to join Nato, accusing them of harbouring terrorists

He's a shyster, that Erdogan!

[Pinback]

The Turks maybe after some sort of concessions or they want to present a more neutral image to the Russians, so they can continue peace talks. 
Thought this bit of news was interesting Retired colonel speaks out on Russian TV - BBC News as the article says are they prepping the Russian public for bad news or even mobilization.

[Cody]

Yeah, I was just reading that. They say it's always the colonels who instigate coups.

[sscadmin]

That colonel spoke truths with this:



"The desire to defend their motherland very much exists. Ultimate victory on the battlefield is determined by the high morale of troops who are spilling blood for the ideas they are ready to fight for.




"The biggest problem with [Russia's] military and political situation," he continued, "is that we are in total political isolation and the whole world is against us, even if we don't want to admit it. We need to resolve this situation.




"The situation cannot be considered normal when against us, there is a coalition of 42 countries and when our resources, military-political and military-technical, are limited."



He was right further in the article when he said: "An armed conflict with Ukraine is not in Russia's national interests."
The shit that Russia is going to have to go through for years now because of this action will harm the people most of all... so many businesses leaving Russia and businesses refusing to sell to Russia. Example both Boeing and Airbus are no longer allowing parts to be sold to Russia... so in a few short months it could be risky to fly in Russia
They are going to be taking a step back technology wise because all the big firms refuse to supply parts for them. This will get bad later like next year for them. Yeah I know Russia is trying to boost their currency by requiring transactions to be done in it.... but that will only help for so long. The longer this drags out the worse it will get for them personally. 

[Cody]

Yep!

[Pinback]

Think we might be in for some Russian show trials as they now have some POW from Mariupol and as the Ukrainian have started war crimes trials.

[sscadmin]

I cannot remember where I read/heard but I think Russia withdrew from something excluding them from trails in The Hague, so if we see trials it will be the 'show' trials your speaking of to generate positive press.

[Pinback]

I see that a Russian senator has said that thing are not going well, so it looks like the Kremlin maybe prepping the Russian people for bad news. 

[sscadmin]

I think a saw a headline somewhere where govt officials were speculating that regardless Ukraine will loose some of their country if the war is to stop, Russia will never just back out and concede defeat it would totally destroy any of their reputation as a super power. \
But I would agree they have to decide something soon, I would hope this conflict doesn't last until the end of the year. The global stress it is causing will get worse. Nevermind the loss of life on both sides. All I have to say is that the military planners for Russia definitely did not do their jobs Russia after the first week must have thought shit this is bad but we are committed we cannot stop now. And that is definitely where they are at, saving face now.

[Cody]

It's hard to see a way out for Putin. Remove him, and the possibilities become much better for everyone.

[Pinback]

They say getting rid of Putin might not change anything as the ideology run pretty deep in the Kremlin, but even if he did disappear into a sanatorium, it might not change much.
I get the feeling that we might end up with some sort of DMZ like Korea and if that happens then we maybe in for a bigger war in about 10 to 15 years. When the Russians have rebuilt their military and reorganised their economy.

[Gaius Konstantine]

Getting rid of Putin would be a bad idea. His two most likely successors are a hothead and a hardliner. This may be a case of better to deal with the devil you know.

[Cody]

Perhaps... perhaps not. A hardliner with a dose of pragmatism might be preferable.
But I'm no expert, when it comes to geopolitical stuff, warfare, and diplomacy.

[sscadmin]

Posted by: @gaius-konstantine
Getting rid of Putin would be a bad idea. His two most likely successors are a hothead and a hardliner. This may be a case of better to deal with the devil you know.

I agree with this thought, as it is right now its better to deal with someone we think is predictable.... thats why countries of the world kinda didn't mess with Trump much because he wasn't really expected to win and he was never a politician so he was a unknown to all the country leaders so no one tested him... So I think changing leaders at this point during a war might be a bad thing. I think if Putin really was 'crazy' that the leadership would overthrow him if they thought their country was in danger.
There is differences between threats and actions.... NK has been threatening world destruction for decades now
What is concerning is Russia is advancing further and slowly taken more ground.

[Gaius Konstantine]

Posted by: @cody
Perhaps... perhaps not. A hardliner with a dose of pragmatism might be preferable.
But I'm no expert, when it comes to geopolitical stuff, warfare, and diplomacy.

Cody, I wouldn't call myself an expert, but a hardliner with a dose of pragmatism? My friend, based on whose reality? Putin believes he is being pragmatic, and from his point of view, he is, from ours he is not. His likely successors don't understand why Russia is still only using a portion of their peace time army and why they are using a kid-gloves approach, their pragmatism in other words is to hit Ukraine harder and be done with it. 
Also keep in mind we get the media version of events, our own DoD has a far different assessment of that entire situation , and that assessment is not for public dissemination. Posted by: @sscadmin
I agree with this thought, as it is right now its better to deal with someone we think is predictable.... thats why countries of the world kinda didn't mess with Trump much because he wasn't really expected to win and he was never a politician so he was a unknown to all the country leaders so no one tested him... So I think changing leaders at this point during a war might be a bad thing. I think if Putin really was 'crazy' that the leadership would overthrow him if they thought their country was in danger.
There is differences between threats and actions.... NK has been threatening world destruction for decades now
What is concerning is Russia is advancing further and slowly taken more ground.

Yes D1, Trump was hard to figure out and too many thought that his TV persona was what he was really about. Trump, in a board meeting behind closed doors, is far more eloquent, serious, and soft spoken than most imagine. I followed his campaign as I had met him in the 80s, do you know when I realized he had a chance to win? As soon as I saw him wearing a suit with that dopey red baseball cap, I knew he had just picked up millions of votes without saying a word. For all his faults, the man is not stupid. 
Russia advancing was inevitable imo, had our own media here been a bit more straightforward about reporting events there, then it would have been expected by a lot of people.
I have some people close to me in occupied Ukraine, at least they let me know that the Russians aren't acting like Orcs to the civilians, quite the opposite. This is good on a personal level as I worry about them, but the bad part is that it makes it obvious that Russia isn't planning on giving up any territory they hold. 
This needs to end quickly, it would be better for all concerned and the world in general.

[sscadmin]

Posted by: @gaius-konstantine
This needs to end quickly, it would be better for all concerned and the world in general.

100%
World economies are going to shit and everyone that is not rich is suffering. You might be right about expecting something to happen in the world in general this is really the longest period in the last 100+ yrs that we haven't had a world war. I know the govts of the world are trying to press everyone into one because it will provide a escape plan for all the govt failed policies that have trashed our countries in general.
I do hope that the conflict stops soon and people can start to rebuild their lives.
A shocking stat I read just the other day that surprised me was that 66% of small businesses that were around in 2019 are no longer in business today. That is huge issue, I mean govts just basically wiped out the middle class.... war, resource and food shortages will only make this worse if this continues.
I try to not go the conspiracy route most of the time.... but there is just too many things going wrong at the same time to be a fluke?

[Gaius Konstantine]

@sscadmin 
Yes D1, we in the west are getting hit real hard. Covid (and the policies to deal with it),disrupted supply chains word-wide. Our own Gov't printing cash like mad stoked inflation, and now this. 
The middle class was vibrant when I was a kid, with 9 out of 10 jobs paying enough to allow a single earner household, that's reversed now. Small business...man I know what you mean and it's happening in Europe as well. Posted by: @sscadmin
I try to not go the conspiracy route most of the time.... but there is just too many things going wrong at the same time to be a fluke?

Yeah...I try not to go that route myself, but it's hard to believe that our Governments and administrations are this clueless by accident, you know what they say...Sometimes the difference between a conspiracy theory and a conspiracy is about six months time.
All I can say, to all of you, is be prepared for the fall, I think by then we may be in full blown economic crisis. I hope not, but better to be cautious than caught un-prepared. 

[Pinback]

Posted by: @gaius-konstantine
Russia advancing was inevitable imo, had our own media here been a bit more straightforward about reporting events there, then it would have been expected by a lot of people.

Granted a lot of the Western media has been doing a lot of screaming, first month it was refugees and dead kiddies, second month it was war crimes and third month, the food crisis.
Every time Putin mentions nukes or another country they seem to think he going to start world war 3 or invade some where else.
But at the end of the day what ever Victory Putin claims it's going to be a pyrrhic victory, then you add in the huge strategic blunder and the economic impact on the Russian economy and it all adds upto one of the greatest missteps in history.

[Gaius Konstantine]

Posted by: @pinback
But at the end of the day what ever Victory Putin claims it's going to be a pyrrhic victory, then you add in the huge strategic blunder and the economic impact on the Russian economy and it all adds upto one of the greatest missteps in history. 

I don't know my friend, we're feeling the economic impact as well while the Ruble is the best performing currency of the year, I think more thought should have gone into our economic response so as to damage them and not us. I do agree it was a misstep, but perhaps for different reasons. I think his side could have gained more by doing nothing, just waiting.
If Ukraine reconciled with the east, great, if Ukraine invaded then he could have responded without looking like the clear cut aggressor. Of course I have the luxury of being a Monday morning quarterback in all things.

[Pinback]

Could very well come down to the economics and who blinks first, we have some cracks appearing in Europe with the Germans, French and Italians, talking about peace negotiations.
And as the French and Germans maybe in Kiev later this week we will see what they have to say for themselves, and in the light of Putin, Peter the Great comments.