So is WW3 coming?

[sscadmin]

I am not sure what the endgame is in what USA is doing. But Iran has been a thorn in a lot of countries sides for many years, and the people of Iran seem to want this change. But at what cost? Many countries will soon struggle if oil/ng doesn't start flowing again. I already see almost $5gal gas here. And my heating oil prices are crazy expensive.

If Iran and other countries get their refineries messed up or even destroyed, what then? Will the whole world go to war over this oil? Even if we did it would still take years to get it flowing again if the infrastructure is destroyed. Like with Trump threatening to destroy the power grid in Iran if they don't stop firing at ships.

USA also basically starving out Cuba of resources as well trying to change that regime. Lots of things going on, while all the while all countries are inflating their currencies (especially the usa). I wouldn't be surprised if a huge crash comes totally screwing over Gen X/Z when it comes to retiring.

I doubt nukes are going to fly unless some country built a dirty bomb or something. The world is getting tense, please everyone stay safe and lower your expenses I don't see this environment of everything being pricey ending any time soon.

[Cholmondely]

I am not sure what the endgame is in what USA is doing. But Iran has been a thorn in a lot of countries sides for many years, and the people of Iran seem to want this change. But at what cost? Many countries will soon struggle if oil/ng doesn't start flowing again. I already see almost $5gal gas here. And my heating oil prices are crazy expensive.

If Iran and other countries get their refineries messed up or even destroyed, what then? Will the whole world go to war over this oil? Even if we did it would still take years to get it flowing again if the infrastructure is destroyed. Like with Trump threatening to destroy the power grid in Iran if they don't stop firing at ships.

USA also basically starving out Cuba of resources as well trying to change that regime. Lots of things going on, while all the while all countries are inflating their currencies (especially the usa). I wouldn't be surprised if a huge crash comes totally screwing over Gen X/Z when it comes to retiring.

I doubt nukes are going to fly unless some country built a dirty bomb or something. The world is getting tense, please everyone stay safe and lower your expenses I don't see this environment of everything being pricey ending any time soon.

As I see it, our three main actors have quite different goals.

Our darling Donald wants to claim a believeable win, avoid any humiliation and try and battle inflation (which tariffs and the Hormuz Strait blockade militate against). Depending on the mood he is in, he switches between them. I see no way of managing all 3 together, but who knows? But if inflation stays high and he loses the midterms, his freedom of action will be somewhat curtailed, no?

Netanyahu wants the war to go on so that he can carry on avoiding the lawcourts (corruption charge, if I recall correctly) and ideally win the next election (helps him stay out of jail). He would also like to see Iranian regime change and/or the evisceration of Iran's nuclear capability. Either of these would also count as a "win" for Donald.

The Iranian regime just wants to stay in charge and avoid regime change. That would be a victory for them. Their nuclear can always be rebuilt later - and they now have a brand new threat... closing the Hormuz Strait with the subsequent impact on the world economy.

Over here in Blighty they have been talking of a 6 month wait until the Persian Gulf energy infrastructure is rebuilt and prices return to normal. But Iran can now threaten that whenever it likes.

[sscadmin]

I been listening to a lot of points of view on what has been happening and out of all the videos I think Glenn Beck has some nice thoughts on what Trump may be doing...



Controlling how the oil flows definitely will change the power dynamics in the world rather quickly. And explains why the moves Trump did with Meduro, ongoing with Cuba and Iran. I do agree @Cholmondely that if Trump doesn't get results soon the Democrats I think will take over a lot in senate and congress.... maybe that is why he is pushing hard at getting the agenda done before his hands get tied.

But if Beck is right about some of this it could bring a lot of peace to the world after the dust settles (least in theory).

[Cholmondely]

Interesting, thank you for sharing this one.

It would be superb if it were true, but I can see two issues with it.

a) It presumes that dear old Donald is capable of it. I'm not convinced that he is (i) that calculating and (ii) that able to stick to a coherent plan for any length of time. And may the Almighty have pity on the poor souls of anybody who thanks that (i) they can persuade him to do it (ii) to keep quiet about what he's up to and (iii) stick to it for longer than a few days.

b) that he will not change his mind and shoot himself in the foot. Take just the one example of tariffs. I fully understand the rationale for using tariffs to improve the national economy. But you have to stick to them, not change them every time you blow your nose. Otherwise any sensible business will not invest billions of dollars in building a new factory (since the next blowing of the nose may eliminate the rationale for building the factory in the first place). The love of headlines, the love of doing a new deal (undermining the stability of the old), and the love of coming up with something new and different all preclude the stability which businesses need to make their decisions.

Apologies, I rather think that I've repeated myself in my response...

[sscadmin]

I think Trump has surrounded himself with good people that advise him, but I do think his mouth tends to mess things up. If and its a big IF has plan is like what Glenn Beck is theorising then damn its a master class in world politics to change the world basically in a 4yr term.

But to be successful you would think some of the plan has to slip out to let Americans know like hey the plan is bigger than you think just trust the plan a little longer and America will be better off for it. Right now you can see glimpses of this plan... slowly starve the enemies of the USA of Oil/$$$ ... there is already plenty of videos on how China is struggling hard right now. If I remember correct once oil is being pumped you cannot just shut it off, you can limit it. But that oil is under pressure and you cannot just shut it off, if Iran cannot sell it eventually they will run out of storage facilities and then what are they going to do?

I think the most important part is that the USA just proved that NATO is not strong and will not back each other. The only time NATO actually acts is if its their best interest. We all know Iran has basically been a terrorist country for decades and no one has done anything because of their oil.... a lot of countries depend on that oil flowing so they let them get away with what they do even though we know its wrong... finally someone said enough and if it causes some world havoc for a while to make some of these countries non-threats again its worth it. I will pay higher gas and food prices for a while so the world can hopefully have a better peace and just maybe we can all prosper and smaller countries that have resources can open them up to the world and make money for themselves.

Only time will tell, lets see where everything sits at the end of May.